WF
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN (WFC)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 EPS was $1.43 and revenue was $20.38B; fee income grew 11% year over year while net interest income (NII) fell 7%. Efficiency improved materially (68% vs. 77% in Q4’23) and net income rose 47% YoY to $5.08B .
- Results included discrete tax benefits (+$0.26 EPS), severance (-$0.15), and investment portfolio repositioning losses (-$0.10), netting to a modest tailwind to reported EPS .
- Management guided 2025 NII to be ~1–3% higher than 2024 and 2025 noninterest expense at ~$54.2B, with ~$2.4B of gross cost saves offset by targeted tech/investment spend .
- Capital return remained strong (CET1 11.1%, TLAC 24.8%, LCR 125%), with $4.0B buybacks in Q4 and a $0.40/common dividend; management continues to target sustainable ROTCE of 15% over time .
- Catalysts: easing deposit betas and modest loan growth into 2H’25, continued fee momentum, visible CRE office loss normalization path, and ongoing regulatory progress (including CFPB consent order termination on Jan 28, 2025) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Fee diversification offset NII headwinds: noninterest income +11% YoY on stronger advisory fees, investment banking, card fees, and improved venture capital marks .
- Expense discipline: the efficiency ratio improved to 68 (vs. 77 in Q4’23); excluding last year’s FDIC assessment, expenses remained well controlled despite severance .
- Strategic progress and capital returns: $4.0B Q4 buybacks; management emphasized progress toward sustainable 15% ROTCE and diversified revenue engines (cards, CIB, wealth) .
Selected quotes:
- “Our solid performance this quarter caps a year of significant progress… strong fee-based revenue growth… expenses declined from a year ago, and credit trends remained relatively stable.” — CEO Charlie Scharf .
- “We grew fee income across most categories… and grew net interest income from the third quarter.” — CFO Mike Santomassimo .
What Went Wrong
- NII still down YoY (-7%) given deposit mix/pricing changes, lower rates on floating-rate assets, and lower loan balances .
- CRE office remains a headwind: commercial net loan charge-offs rose QoQ to 30 bps, reflecting higher office-related charge-offs; management expects losses to remain “lumpy” .
- Markets revenue declined YoY and QoQ, impacted by seasonality and an $85M FVA implementation loss; CIB efficiency ratio rose to 50 (vs. 45 in Q3’24) .
Financial Results
Non-GAAP/one-time items in Q4 2024:
- Discrete tax benefits: +$863M (+$0.26 EPS)
- Severance expense: -$647M (-$0.15 EPS)
- Net losses on debt securities (repositioning): -$448M (-$0.10 EPS)
Segment Revenue and Net Income
Key KPIs
Guidance Changes
Assumptions supporting NII guide include modest loan and deposit growth across segments, securities reinvestment into higher yields, and higher trading NII largely offset by lower trading noninterest income; guidance assumes the asset cap remains in place for 2025 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic focus and diversification: “We are seeing the benefits from investments… we made a conscious effort to diversify revenues and reduce reliance on net interest income.” — CEO Charlie Scharf .
- 2025 guide framework: “Full year 2025 net interest income will be approximately 1% to 3% higher than 2024… with more growth in the second half.” — CFO Mike Santomassimo .
- Expense outlook: “We expect 2025 noninterest expense to be approximately $54.2 billion… with ~$2.4 billion of gross expense reductions in 2025 due to efficiency initiatives.” — CFO Mike Santomassimo .
- CRE office stance: “Commercial real estate office fundamentals have not changed and remain weak… we still expect office losses to be lumpy.” — CFO Mike Santomassimo .
Q&A Highlights
- Deposits/NII sensitivity: Management expects stabilization in deposit mix with promotional rates moving lower and commercial pricing resetting with Fed cuts; balance sheet remains modestly asset-sensitive (lower rates are a slight NII headwind, higher rates a slight tailwind) .
- Credit card profitability runway: Earliest vintages now maturing; portfolio profitability should become more meaningful over the next 1–2 years; underwriting standards remain tight (new originations ≥660 FICO) .
- Capital returns/appetite: With CET1 ~11.1% and asset cap constraints, buybacks continue prudently; organic growth opportunities take precedence .
- Investment portfolio repositioning: Two actions (Q3/Q4) with ~2–2.5 year payback; disciplined approach, further actions evaluated opportunistically .
- CRE office outlook: Losses tracking within expectations, but resolution will take time; allowance coverage viewed as appropriate .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus estimates for revenue and EPS for Q2–Q4 2024; data were unavailable due to provider limits at this time. As a result, we cannot assess beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus in this report. We will update with S&P Global consensus when accessible.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Fee strength is durable and diversified; advisory, IB, card, and venture investment gains helped offset NII pressure and should remain supportive into 2025 .
- NII trajectory improving: modest loan/deposit growth, deposit betas easing, and reinvestment benefits underpin 2025 NII growth guidance; expect more momentum in 2H’25 .
- Cost discipline continues: 2025 expense guide balances ~$2.4B gross saves with targeted tech/market investments; watch quarterly cadence (seasonally higher personnel in Q1) .
- CRE office risk is contained within allowance plans; expect “lumpy” losses, but NPAs trending down and allowance coverage stable—monitor charge-off cadence and office exposure reduction .
- Cards remain a multi-year growth driver with vintages maturing and profitability improving; underwriting remains conservative; new leadership appointed to sustain momentum .
- Markets/CIB execution is methodical; seasonality and FVA changes impacted Q4; medium-term focus remains client-flow and returns with measured asset use under the cap .
- Capital return remains robust under constraints (buybacks and dividends); CET1/LCR/TLAC strong; asset cap removal would unlock incremental growth levers in deposits and financing .